New Hot Tip -

Posted 01/02/2010 (11:30 am PST)

At the current Aqueduct meet there are a couple of trainers to keep an eye on ...

Contessa G - there are two patterns that you want to watch for with him, 1) anytime he brings a horse back to race in 10 days or less from the last race,and 2) whenever he works a horse handily for the last workout prior to a race (Gary almost always breezes his horses).

Jacobson D - here is another trainer that you have to give his horses serious consideration whenever he brings a horse back to race in 10 days or less from the last race.

Posted 10/16/2009 (10:30 am PST)

The 4th Race at Belmont Park on Friday, Oct. 16, 2009 - Maiden 12.5K Claiming Race at 6.0 Furlongs - If less than a fast track, all bets are off. There are some horses taking significant class drops who have shown previous early speed in this race ... Wild Conga, We Get It, and Sal Paradise. All of those horses have a legitimate chance to win this race, especially Wild Conga. Having said that, I'm going to try and beat them with a 12/1 long shot, Macho Mambo.

Macho Mambo - Showed early speed against much tougher competition in the last two races, the last 7 days ago. The first five races for this horses were on the turf, which he didn't fair well. The last two were on dirt and that's when he started showing early speed. He tired and got 4th in both. Tesher drops him in class again and shortens him up, a definite plus. However, what really gets my attention is the fact that he's bringing the horse back in 10 days or less from the previous race. Howard has been very successful when racing horses back in 10 days or less. At this shorter distance, if Macho Mambo can get out early without to much pressure, I think he has an excellent chance of winning.
Results ... TTrack was sloppy so all bets were off. Wild Conga won.

Results Updated 10/08/2009

Esperanto - Was six lengths back at the 1/4 mile and eight lengths back at 3/8 of a mile. With Dakota Smoke and Ready to Romp dueling on the front end and Palace Tenor stalking the leaders, the pace set up perfect for Esperanto, who closed to win by a head, paying $11.60.

Ready to Romp - Dueled with Dakota Smoke and tired, finishing last.

Posted 10/07/2009

THE CURRENT HAWTHORNE MEET ...

The 3rd Race on Thursday, Oct. 08, 2009 - Maiden 25K Claiming Race at 6.5 Furlongs on the Turf - If the race is taken off the turf or the turf course is rated less than good, then all bets are off. Palace Tenor is going to be the favorite and rightfully so, with an adjusted 1st quarter fraction of 22.3 and 1/2 mile fraction of 45.3 and a turn time of 23.0, he was a full second faster than any other horse in this field. Additionally, he's shorting up so he doesn't have to carry the speed as far. Having said that, all of his races, but one, have been on a synthetic course. In his last two races he had some pressure on the front end which he didn't appear to handle to well. I'm going to try and beat him with the two Frank Kirby entries, Esperanto or Ready to Romp.

Esperanto - All five of his starts were against straight maidens (MD SP WT) and three of those were on a good or soft turf course, so I expect him to improve with the big class drop and a firm turf course. He was given two moderate works since the last race. Kirby is pretty predictable when it comes to workouts - he almost never works his horses any earlier than four days prior to a race. So when he does something out of the ordinary, like working Esperanto three days prior to a race, it gets my attention. For the race at AP on 07/15/09, he closed from 8 lengths back at the second call, to finish 1 1/2 lengths behind the winner after being steadied towards the end of the race. So we know he has some closing speed. If Palace Tenor hooks up in a duel it could set up for a closing kick by Esperanto.

Ready to Romp - Another horse with early speed who just missed winning the race on 07/30/09. Another Kirby horse given two moderate workouts since the last race with the last workout three days prior to the race. If Karlsson can get him to rate just off the pace or Palace Tenor and Dakota Smoke hook up in a duel (and Ready to Romp stays out of the duel), I think he's got a good chance. He came up as my 3rd rated horse after handicapping the race

Results Updated 10/05/2009

Spring Manners and Soaring By  1st Race on Friday, Oct. 03, 2009 - 4K Claiming Race at 6.0 Furlongs - The track was listed as sloppy so it was immediately a non-bet situation for me. As I have stated in previous postings, I don't bet races on off tracks because they're too unpredictable. Spring Manners scratched and Soaring By was 6th after a really slow start. He does not do well in the slop as indicated by his 4 and 0 record on off tracks. We'll try another pick at Finger Lakes when the track is listed as fast.

Posted 10/01/2009

THE CURRENT FINGER LAKES MEET ...

Finger Lakes is a small track in western New York and, like a lot of small tracks, the trainers don't work their horses as much as they do at the larger tracks ... Belmont, Aqueduct, Gulfstream, Santa Anita, to name a few. At Finger Lakes, many of the horses are literally raced in to shape by frequently running them. Therefore, when a trainer has a horse in what he/she considers good form, they will strike while the irons hot, so to speak, and race the horse as soon as they can. Under these condition, you will see many of the more experienced trainers bring their horses back to race in 10 days or less from the previous race. One of the trainers that is excellent at bringing horses back in 10 days or less and WINNING, with payout's of $3.50 to $35.20, is O S Barrera, Jr. - 13 of his 30 wins fit this pattern.

This leads us to a pick for the 1st Race on Saturday, Oct. 03, 2009 - 4K Claiming Race at 6.0 Furlongs ... this race has at least 5 horses that like to run on the front end, which pretty much ensures a speed duel. So this race sets up for a horse coming off the pace with two horses filling the bill - Spring Manners and Soaring By.

Spring Manners - this horse won its last race, at odds of 15/1, closing from way back on a three horse duel on the front end. After adjusting for the track variant, he had some pretty good fractions to run at, which will probably be the same in this race. He has a lot going for him, hot trainer and hot jockey. It should be noted that this horse won a race at Monmouth Park, on Aug. 17, 2009, stalking the pace, so he doesn't have to close from the clouds to win. Another fact to note is that Soaring By beat Spring Manners by 7 1/2 lengths two races back, however, it was a route and Spring Manners is primarily a sprinter.

Soaring By - this horse is being brought back to race 7 days from his previous race by the above mentioned trainer O S Barrera, Jr., which, as noted, he has been very successful doing. He won a 5 1/2 furlong sprint convincingly on Jul. 20, 2009 and then on Aug. 17, 2009 switched to a route, mile and 70 yd's., and won again. He then tried two more routes at the same distance, getting in to a duel and tiring in the race before last and then coming back in the last race, Sep. 26, 2009, with a strong second place finish. He showed early speed in both of those races and the distance should have helped with his stamina. What I really like is the back in 7 days, the blinkers to help with the focus on speed, Rohena stays aboard, and most importantly, he goes back to a sprint, which I feel will help. This horse has plenty of back class and showed some good early speed in a couple of graded stakes race a few years back. My only concern is how much the last race took out of him because he had to work hard to get the second place after getting pushed really wide twice.

THE CURRENT ARLINGTON MEET ...

CANANI N - Nick can be very successful/predictable under certain conditions ... first race off a rest in conjunction with the first race after a claim or trainer switch and involving a class drop, especially, when the class drop is below the horse's claiming price (DBCP). Additionally, he has a horse in the exacta 50% of the time and the trifecta 61% of the time. He likes to use E T Baird as his go to jockey.

Posted 09/08/2009 ... I always get asked the question - "if you had to pick one trainer pattern that has the most success helping pick winners at a big price, what would it be? Answer - "A move up in class when a horse is making its first start coming off a rest, especially a rest of 60 days or more". The general rule, when bringing a horse back off a rest, is to run the horse at the same class, or, the more accepted approached, drop the horse in class. So, with an understanding of what the customary trainer approach is when bringing a horse back off a rest, an atypical or opposite approach should get your attention, especially when it's a successful trainer or the trainer had previously moved a horse up in class off a rest. Why should this get your attention? The reason is called TRAINER INTENT. This is one of the most overlooked handicapping tools, EVER. Many trainers, when they have a live horse (a horse that the trainer seriously thinks can win), will, by their actions or moves, let you know that the objective of entering the horse in a particular race is to WIN. They are not guessing or hoping to win, trying something new, experimenting, or assessing a horses potential ... they are expressing extreme confidence that if the horse doesn't encounter trouble, that it can and will win. So, moving a horse up in class off a rest, in most cases, is a strong indicator of the trainer’s intent/confidence in that horse. Do they always win? Of course not, that's why you can't blindly bet on this pattern, or any pattern for that matter. Using what ever method that  works for you, handicap the race and see if the horse is really a contender and if its running style is conducive to winning that particular race. If so, then you might want to give some serious consideration to that horse. Remember, Trainer Profiles will clearly show which trainers have been successful with this move ... I don't know of any statistics that will.

Today's pick for Del Mar 08/23/20009, Race #4 (posted 11:33 PDT) ... there isn't a lot of front end speed in this race. The majority of the horses run from well of the pace and need a lot of speed to set up the closing kick. One horse that does have some early speed is Desert Cowboy. This horse can win on the front end or lay just off the pace. He won his last race out, 6 furlong sprint for a claiming price of 12.5k. I like the fact that Miller is moving him up in class and that Baze stays aboard. I also like the sprint to a route move. However, what really gets my attention is the last workout ... JUST 3 DAYS AGO. Miller rarely works his horses this close to race, yet thus far this meet he already has two wins when he worked the horse 3 days prior to the race. I feel this is a very positive move considering the other factors.
Desert Cowboy hooked up in an early speed duel with One Chin Again and ran out of gas, finishing 7th. No matter the result, if Miller works a horses 2 to 3 days prior to a race, you might want to give that horse some serious consideration.

Yesterday's pick for Del Mar 08/22/20009, Race #2 (posted 11:05 PDT) ... there is plenty of speed in this race with Ten Churros, Red White and Brew, and Bagels N Bones all looking for the lead. They're all pretty equal speed wise, so I'm looking for a speed duel on the front end. There fore, this race sets up for a horse coming off the pace - Ride Me Fast. This is the 2nd race off a rest, with the last race run on the turf, which she didn't appear to like. There are a couple of things that get my attention about what baffert is doing with this horse ... he's dropping her in class, puts Joe Talamo aboard and, most importantly, he's bringing her back in 8 days. Whenever Bob brings a horse back in 10 days or less he's been very successful.   Ride Me Fast won, paying $12.00

THE CURRENT SARATOGA MEET ...

HOUGH S M - Stanley is a very steady trainer and fairly predictable when it comes to workouts prior to a race. Normally, he works his horses four to five days or further out prior to a race. So when you see him work a horse two to three day prior to a race, you need to give that horse some serious consideration. He usually makes this move two or three time a meet, regardless if it's Saratoga, Belmont, Aqueduct, Monmouth Park, or Gulfstream Park. What's more important, is that you will usually get very good odds on these horses. Extra points if he worked the horses handily the last workout.

RICE L - Linda is one of my favorite East Coast trainers. Any time she brings a horse back to race in 10 days or less from the previous race, I strongly recommend that you give some serious consideration to that horse ... especially if Alan Garcia is riding. I picked her horses on one of the HRTV shows I did, that she was bringing back in 10 days from the last race and it won going away, paying $41.40. You will get some good prices when she does this so keep an eye open for this pattern.

Statistics ... I continuously get emails asking if we have statistics to support our profiles ... the answer is NO. Let me explain why - there are currently enough statistics out there to choke a horse (pardon the pun) and they're all providing basically the same data, which everybody has access to via past performances or a variety of web sites. On HRTV, I presented an example of a trainer from Delaware Park, Mario Serey, whose profile showed five wins paying $7.20 to $21.00 when he brought a horse back in 10 days or less. This pattern literally jumped off the page. If we had statistics showing that Serey won with this pattern 45% of the time what kind of payout's would we be getting? Folks, the idea is to have an advantage over the other bettors and if we provide statistics for these patterns then we lose that advantage. THINK ABOUT IT. That's why you see morning line odds of 5/1 drop to 6/5 because everybody is using the same stats and speed numbers.